Description

This analysis provides a forecast of DIA prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.371681 0.409558 0.451070 0.500200 0.557094 0.621313 0.699863
2025-02-23 0.316734 0.363044 0.416729 0.484290 0.568087 0.670035 0.805722
2025-03-02 0.276342 0.325910 0.385790 0.464725 0.568022 0.701556 0.892420
2025-03-09 0.255023 0.308466 0.375460 0.467622 0.594492 0.768491 1.035821
2025-03-16 0.242698 0.300453 0.375378 0.482711 0.637937 0.863859 1.238177
2025-03-23 0.229608 0.289833 0.370267 0.489595 0.669872 0.946854 1.439793
2025-03-30 0.216987 0.278500 0.362741 0.491616 0.694093 1.021097 1.644222
2025-04-06 0.204636 0.266390 0.352796 0.488564 0.709403 1.082585 1.840869
2025-04-13 0.189189 0.248745 0.333350 0.468855 0.694899 1.089927 1.932954
2025-04-20 0.181382 0.241446 0.328407 0.471093 0.716942 1.165871 2.189365
2025-04-27 0.173888 0.234042 0.322633 0.471229 0.735035 1.237172 2.458348
2025-05-04 0.166811 0.226770 0.316453 0.469952 0.750170 1.305030 2.742875
2025-05-11 0.160682 0.220783 0.312186 0.472106 0.773162 1.396398 3.135609
2025-05-18 0.151691 0.209904 0.299421 0.458365 0.763900 1.416185 3.335481
2025-05-25 0.142660 0.198507 0.285140 0.440775 0.745012 1.411020 3.459310
2025-06-01 0.138472 0.194435 0.282500 0.443803 0.768083 1.508879 3.970874
2025-06-08 0.136725 0.194072 0.285882 0.458041 0.816324 1.680077 4.860712
2025-06-15 0.133675 0.191435 0.285224 0.464573 0.848908 1.819810 5.745752
2025-06-22 0.130046 0.187657 0.282350 0.466532 0.871520 1.938528 6.650659
2025-06-29 0.125883 0.182798 0.277298 0.463743 0.882768 2.027682 7.502892
2025-07-06 0.119523 0.174035 0.264946 0.445430 0.854976 1.992298 7.633711
2025-07-13 0.116718 0.171088 0.262747 0.447531 0.876991 2.119476 8.899392
2025-07-20 0.113782 0.167788 0.259723 0.447668 0.894189 2.236603 10.282240